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⚡ This Week’s Big Charge
🇨🇦 Canada Opens The Door To Chinese EV Imports—What Does It Mean?
After all of the auto industry’s upheaval in 2025—policy resets, tariffs, strategy shuffles and so on—I was under the impression that 2026 would be some kind of “slowdown” year. Reader, that is not what has happened.
It’s now looking like this year will mark an inflection point for Chinese-made cars, specifically electric vehicles, in North America.
You likely know the reasons why a Chinese juggernaut like BYD can’t sell cars in the United States: stiff tariffs, restrictions on software on national security grounds, and general political pressure are the big ones.
Automakers from Germany, Japan and South Korea have had an export and manufacturing presence in the U.S. for decades. Unlike those nations, China is a geopolitical adversary, so few people have been willing to let its fast-growing auto sector set up a foothold here.
But in a break from U.S. automotive trade policy—fueled in part by their already fraying relationship—Canada struck a deal with China last week to allow cheap Chinese EVs in without the 100% tariffs it had previously imposed in solidarity with Washington. And Chinese EV imports are already dominating sales in Mexico, so this is certainly a signal of those companies gaining steam in North America.
So where does it all go from here? Let’s game it out.
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🛻 Scenario 1: It’s (Mostly) Fine, Because It’s Small—And Familiar
The deal that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed with Xi Jinping includes an initial annual cap of 49,000 EVs from China, which grows to about 70,000 over five years.
As part of the trade deal, 50% of the import quota will be priced at $35,000 Canadian (about $25,000 USD) or less as part of an affordability push.
Still, that’s not that many cars. About 1.8 million new ones are sold in Canada every year—this is a drop in the bucket.
It’s also what Canada allowed before 2024, when it increased anti-China tariffs to 100% with the U.S. In 2023, China exported 41,678 EVs to Canada.
And those weren’t even from Chinese brands: they were China-built exports from Tesla, Polestar, Volvo and so on. BYD only sells electric buses there.
So in this scenario, it’s not such a disruptive move. It’s mostly an avenue for familiar car brands to use their Chinese production more in the West. They’re already here, so what’s the harm in cheaper options, right?
But that’s only one way of looking at things.
🔥 Scenario 2: Hold Your Loved Ones Close, Say The Things You Were Afraid To Say—The North American Carpocalypse Is Here
As Canada’s Globe and Mail reported Thursday, at least one new Chinese auto brand is recruiting on LinkedIn for a potential expansion: Chery Automobile.
It’s a big family of auto brands, including the namesake Chery, that’s expanding rapidly overseas with a range of EVs, hybrids and gas cars—all of which are generally pretty affordable. And it’s China’s largest auto exporter.
Chery’s not a power-hitter tech leader like BYD. But its presence in Canada could be the start of a bigger shift.
And Chery would open with cheaper options to undercut existing players. The European auto press is plenty spooked about its rise there.
Now imagine Chery’s sales taking off in Canada, demand growing fast, then local production ramping up—then a bunch of other Chinese brands doing the same thing. (Again, Chery’s entry is not yet confirmed.)
No wonder Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who represents Canada’s biggest automaking region, is calling on Canadians to boycott Chinese cars.
And Lana Payne, the president of Canadian mega-union Unifor, said the deal threatens an industry that’s already been shrinking in recent years: “We are in the fight of our lives here fending off Trump’s tariffs, and that fight just got a little harder,” she said.
In other words, this could be the start of a wide-scale displacement of the industry and manufacturing jobs. Even local production isn’t guaranteed to protect everyone.
💰 Scenario 3: Compete Or Die
For a piece in The Atlantic that should run soon, I spoke to Dan Hearsch of the automotive practice for consulting firm AlixPartners.
He’s actually sees many upsides to more Chinese options in North America: lower prices, potentially more manufacturing jobs, and forcing existing players to up their game.
This is what Japan’s automakers forced General Motors and Ford to do, he argues. Now China Inc. could do the same.
“It’s not clear that the Chinese won't have a similar effect,” Hearsch told me. “Maybe it's technology, maybe it's the speed of engineering. But there are aspects of competition that make everyone better.”
He is right: Chinese EVs and plug-in hybrids generally boast excellent range, features and technology at ultra-competitive prices. Would it be so bad if they made the rest of the field get better, too?
🧠 My Take:
As they say in Texas, where I’m from: “There's always a faster gun.”
The faster gun has arrived in our part of the world. That’s hardly news to America’s neighbor to the south; now, it heads north as well.
My guess here is you’ll see Scenario 3, with a little bit of Scenario 2 mixed in.
I do think President Trump has a better chance than a Democratic president of striking a deal with China that brings EV manufacturing to the U.S., and he’d likely have little trouble getting any GOP China hawks to back his play.
As Trump himself has said, a deal that brings Chinese automaker jobs would be seen as a win. I think he’s far less likely to merely allow imports in.
Regardless, it’s a question of if, not when, automakers in America will be competing with Chinese ones directly. We just took one step closer to that.
📰 More Stories That Matter
The Volvo EX60 debuted this week, and it’s a big deal: up to 400 miles of range, ultra-fast charging, new software and tech, and a not-outrageous price. [InsideEVs]
Five years into the marriage of Fiat Chrysler and Groupe PSA, it’s hard to say what’s actually going right at Stellantis. The stock is down, sales are down and everyone wants to hear the turnaround plan. [CNBC]
Some needed good news for Volkswagen: shares jumped after cash flow came in over guidance and Trump dropped his latest tariff threats. [WSJ]
The reborn Chevrolet Bolt may not be sticking around for long, as General Motors could end production early to make room for a gas-powered Buick. [Bloomberg]
📡 On My Radar
Volkswagen dealers are taking the state of Colorado to court after it approved Scout Motors’ plan to sell direct to consumers. Who will win that fight? [Automotive News]
Speaking of dealers, Volvo’s U.S. retail chairman says the automaker will take a “targeted approach” with the EX60; will dealers be at all enthused to sell it? [Automotive News]
Charging data firm Paren’s 2025 report on the state of the industry is due out next week. Will it show good news for America’s plug infrastructure? [Paren]
Insurance startup Lemonade is betting big on Tesla FSD being safer than a human driver: use it, and you could cut your per-mile rates 50%. Autonomy could mean a big shift for the insurance business. [InsideEVs]
🔌 Charging News
EV chargers expanded rapidly in the U.S. last year. But due, in part, to the Trump administration freezing funds, only 2% of the allocated money has been spent. [Politico Pro]
Similarly, Congress is looking to cut about $879 million appropriated for EV chargers in a new funding bill. [USA Today]
If you think the U.S. or Europe are moving fast at EV charger installations, China went from 10 million to 20 million in just 18 months. [InsideEVs]
Good news for New York: Queens and Long Island are getting more DC fast chargers thanks to Kempower. [Electrek]
In Pennsylvania, convenience stores like Wawa and Sheetz are becoming the go-to places for EV fast-charging. [Grist]
Off-grid EV charging provider L-Charge raises $10 milllion for battery-powered solutions. [EV Infrastructure News]
Some of America’s western states are doing well at EV charger expansions: Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and more. [NPR]
🔋 Battery Industry News
One very cool feature of the Volvo EX60: its “cell-to-body” design, which cuts weight and costs and allows more battery in less real estate. [InsideEVs]
Finnish startup Donut Labs says it can produce solid-state batteries. But experts are getting vocal about their doubts. [Washington Post]
China already dominates the world’s battery supply. Its next act: more battery factories outside of China. [Wired]
And thanks to China’s lead, lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries—which are almost exclusively China-made—were the predominant EV battery chemistry in 2025. [InsideEVs]
More layoffs at Michigan battery maker Our Next Energy, which is pivoting to defense and energy storage amid the EV sales slowdown. [Detroit News]
🤖 Autonomy News
“Zoox understandably still feels like it’s in beta.” One AV industry pro covers a holiday spent in the steering-wheel-free cabs. [Driverless Digest]
Tesla says it’s launching safety-driver-free Robotaxi rides in Austin. [TechCrunch]
Waymo gets a slap on the wrist from a federal judge for refusing to say how many of its AVs stalled out during the San Francisco blackout. [SF Chronicle]
Waymo cabs also keep passing school buses in Austin. One expert says it’s “deflecting accountability and transparency.” [Phil Koopman Substack]
Austinites aren’t happy, either: “A fundamental safety breakdown that puts children at risk.” [Austin American-Statesman]
“This is a competitive business.” Every tech company and OEM wants to license its self-driving tech, but also make it in-house. [Business Insider]
In the Persian Gulf, the driverless taxi space is being dominated by Chinese robotaxis while U.S. rivals stay home. [Rest of World]
🧠 AI News
“We're starting with the simpler stuff.” The CEO of Hyundai-owned Boston Dynamics explains how the robot revolution could kick off in force. [Business Insider]
Meanwhile, Hyundai’s South Korean labor union is (understandably!) concerned about that humanoid robot plan for its factories. [Reuters]
After scrapping the team last year, Elon Musk says Tesla is reviving work on its Dojo 3 supercomputer—a familiar cycle of firing and rehiring.[Bloomberg]
Musk is also suing OpenAI and Microsoft for up to $134 billion, saying he’s owed money for his early financial support. [Reuters]
Here’s how some top car dealers are leveraging AI for their businesses. [Car Dealership Guy]
📤 Spread the Charge
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❓ How’s My Driving?
This is a work in progress, so all feedback is welcome. Send me your thoughts anytime.
💡 Did You Know?
The first true Chinese-made car sold in the U.S. was the Coda, an early electric sedan, back in 2011. It could manage 100 miles of range and cost about $45,000. I’d say the field is a little better these days.
Until next time,
—Patrick George